Counting Cards at the Draft – USHL Defencemen

For those who are new to this series I would recommend part one on NCAA defencemen and part two on high school defencemen. Those will both give you an idea of my methodology .  

Today we are looking at defencemen drafted out of the USHL. I am using all USHL drafted defencemen from 1999-2009, excluding players who played in the United States Development Program (they will get their own piece).  This sample size was again small with only 59 players, but I believe the results still provide a good estimate of what players are likely to succeed. Without further ado the graphs:

The dots seem to take off right between 0.6 and 0.8, so dividing the graph into quadrants at 0.7 and 40% provides:

Obviously only two successes is not ideal, but what is a positive is the 46 players below the 0.7 who failed. Clearly some scoring is needed to have a chance at succeeding at the NHL level.  Those who scored above 0.7 and failed and those who succeeded despite being below 0.7 need to be examined to see why and how they failed/succeeded.

How They Missed

-Colby Cohen (45^th overall, 2007) and Brett Skinner (68^th overall, 2002) were both traded and went to Europe to find stability.

 -Mike Vannelli (136^th overall, 2003) had a decent college career (0.55 ppg) but never received a rookie contract and went to Europe

 -Scott Polaski (180^th overall, 2001) played some RW in his draft season leading to the high point totals.

 -Jeff Finger (240^th overall, 1999) he likely would have been a success if not for the massive deal he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Was sent to the AHL due to his large cap hit.

How They Made it

 -Tom Gilbert (129^th overall, 2002), Chris Butler (96^th overall, 2005) and Jeff Petry (45^th overall, 2006) all saw their scoring improve in the NCAA.

 -Andrew Alberts (179^th overall, 2001) didn’t have a great NCAA career (0.44ppg) but showed flashes including 22 points in 39 games his sophomore season.

 -Matt Greene (44^th overall, 2002) he is the exception to this as he never showed any ability to score at any level, but was big and physical which kept him around.

John Moore was also in this group but he had 0.68 ppg which is close enough to be deemed a success.

2014 Draft Eligible USHL Defensemen as per Central Scouting’s final ranking.  

Player	Rank	GP	Goals	Assists	Points	PPG
Joshua Jacobs	43	56	5	18	23	0.41
Brandon Montour	92	60	14	48	62	1.03
Mark Friedman	124	51	10	30	40	0.78
Neil Pionk	146	54	2	21	23	0.43
Ryan Mantha	149	53	3	12	15	0.28
Hunter Warner	206	43	2	10	12	0.28

Brandon Montour and Mark Friedman are the only two players I would consider drafting. Montour is older as he is a 1994 birthday which explains why his ranking is low. I would still take a shot on him especially if he slips in the draft due to his age. Friedman is likely to go in the fifth round but by this study, has a chance to make the NHL. The other players should be avoided as their likelihood of success is very low.

This study again shows that players who find NHL success are the ones who have proven they can put up points at lower levels. Brandon Montour and Mark Friedman are both on the path to NHL success, and could be draft day steals. For those players who fell below the 0.7 points per game, their NCAA seasons should be monitored closely to see if their scoring rates improve.

All stats gathered from elite prospects and hockey data base, and information on players from Hockey’s Future.